GDCOO Training Module
Strategic Foresight and Scenario-Building
Instructor: Goran Jovanovic

MODULE DESCRIPTION

The training module discusses the concepts of monolithic and infinite futures, continuity and disruption of trends, as illustrated by the futures cone of plausible future worlds. Some of the core approaches in future studies are presented such as horizon scanning, trend monitoring, back-casting, scenario-planning, wild card, counter factual history and the PESTEL analysis.

METHODOLOGY

-Presentation: The training module offers an overview of the key concepts in strategic foresight and forecasting, back-casting and scenario-building, and their application in international affairs, the global economy, security, migrations, climate change, etc.

-Creative Workshop: Political examples and cases of altered pasts and alternative futures in the Post-Covid-19 world are discussed and analyzed in the form of scenario-building case studies among the instructor and the participants.

LEARNING OUTCOMES

-Identify super-trends and drivers of international politics and economy. Analyze their past and current developments; comprehend how trends grow and decline, accelerate and slow down, change their direction, transform or disappear

-Critically evaluate strategic foresight methodologies. Learn to set-up probable, possible and preferable scenarios and anticipate plausible future trends

-Identify and assess how individuals, states and non-state actors make decisions shaping the future state of affairs in the Post-Covid-19 world.

AUDIENCE

-The training module is designed for decision-makers, strategic analysts and policy advisors in government, the private sector, international organizations, think tanks, foresight practitioners and international consultants. Attendance is limited to 15 participants to allow discussion, group interaction and exchange of views.

-Geographical target: World

DOCUMENTS

Training materials include Power Point slides used during the workshop and PDF documents on strategic foresight and scenario-building will be given to participants.